Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development: Summary & Key Insights

To build plausible futures, we start with an understanding of the present momentum points—those deep currents underneath headlines and market statistics. In 2010, when this report was published, the world was emerging from the global financial crisis, and confidence in institutions was shaken. That economic volatility combined with climate distress, resource scarcity, and widening inequality marked a turning point. Technology appeared as both salve and spark: mobile networks promised inclusion, while automation redefined labor and manufacturing. Environmental degradation and demographic shifts underscored the need for sustainable development, even as nations wrestled with political polarization.

I view technology as a force multiplier—it amplifies human intent, for better or worse. The outcomes depend not merely on the devices we create, but on how societies organize around them. This is why international development must evolve beyond charity into systemic change. Cross-sector collaboration becomes the linchpin, because no single actor—government, business, or civil society—can tackle global challenges alone. Climate adaptation, digital governance, and public health all hinge on integrating technological progress with inclusive policy frameworks.

In foresight practice, these trends become our input variables. We look for driving forces and critical uncertainties. The drivers—like innovation rates, population growth, and connectivity—tend to move in predictable trajectories. The uncertainties—such as political legitimacy, resource distribution, or the ethics of control—are what we explore through scenarios. This distinction lies at the heart of our methodology, reminding us that foresight is not prophecy but preparation.

Scenario planning begins with the recognition that the future is plural. There isn’t a single path forward; instead, we face alternative pathways shaped by critical uncertainties. In this framework, two fundamental axes guide the exploration. The first concerns the degree of government coordination and control. The second concerns the level of citizen and institutional cooperation. By crossing these dimensions, we obtain four quadrants—each a distinctive world in which technology and society evolve differently.

When I work with teams on building scenarios, I emphasize that these are not predictions or preferences. They are stories we can test strategies against. Each story embodies a coherent perspective about how humans respond to crises and opportunities. For international development, this process is invaluable. It teaches organizations to recognize weak signals, monitor emerging risks, and design resilient interventions.

The methodology also relies on identifying key uncertainties—the questions whose answers will fundamentally shape our shared future. How will governments handle cybersecurity threats? Will citizens trust technological systems? Can global coordination withstand the pressures of crisis nationalism? By exploring extreme outcomes, we reveal underlying assumptions and encourage adaptive thinking. In essence, scenario planning serves as mental infrastructure: it builds structural readiness for the unforeseen.