Philip E. Tetlock Books
Tetlock is a Canadian-American political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, known for his research on judgment and decision-making.
Known for: Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Books by Philip E. Tetlock
Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Good Judgment explores the science and practice of forecasting and decision-making. Drawing on research from the Good Judgment Project, the authors reveal how some individuals consistently make more a...
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction explores how some individuals consistently make more accurate predictions about future events than others. Drawing on research from the Good Judgmen...
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Superforecasters and the Science of Prediction
In the Good Judgment Project, we recruited thousands of volunteers to forecast hundreds of real-world events: elections, policy decisions, economic trends. We measured accuracy rigorously, rewarding participants who gave probabilities that matched actual outcomes. Over time, a small group consistent...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Cognitive Traits and Habits of Mind
The mental habits of superforecasters run counter to much of human psychology. People crave certainty and often cling to their first beliefs, interpreting new evidence through the lens of what they already think. Superforecasters resist that pull. They live in a state of perpetual curiosity. They a...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
The Limits of Expert Prediction and the Birth of the Good Judgment Project
The book opens with a straightforward revelation that unsettled many professional forecasters: experts, when measured rigorously, don’t predict the future reliably. In my landmark study encompassing tens of thousands of forecasts by specialists across economics and politics, the average accuracy sca...
From Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Defining the Superforecaster Mindset
What distinguishes a superforecaster is not raw intelligence or privileged access to data, but their approach to thinking. These individuals exhibit open-mindedness—the recognition that even well-constructed views may require revision when evidence shifts. They resist ideological inertia and the tem...
From Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
About Philip E. Tetlock
Tetlock is a Canadian-American political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, known for his research on judgment and decision-making.
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Tetlock is a Canadian-American political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, known for his research on judgment and decision-making.
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