Dan Gardner Books
Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and author specializing in psychology and risk analysis.
Known for: Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices, How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Books by Dan Gardner
Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Good Judgment is a practical and evidence-based guide to thinking more clearly about an uncertain world. In this book, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner draw on the groundbreaking Good Judgment Projec...
How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between
This book explores why large projects—from skyscrapers and bridges to software systems and space missions—so often fail to meet expectations, and how to make them succeed. Drawing on decades of resear...
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
What if the future is not nearly as unknowable as we often assume? In Superforecasting, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner challenge the common belief that accurate prediction is the domain of charisma...
Key Insights from Dan Gardner
Superforecasters Beat Experts More Often
One of the book’s most provocative findings is that ordinary people can often predict important events more accurately than celebrated experts. That idea challenges a common assumption: that status, credentials, and media visibility automatically produce better judgment. Through the Good Judgment Pr...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Cultivate Humility, Curiosity, and Flexibility
The minds of strong forecasters are built on a paradox: they think seriously without thinking rigidly. Most people want certainty. We feel safer when our opinions are clear and our identities are attached to them. But certainty can become a trap. The best forecasters avoid this by treating beliefs a...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Experts Often Fail Through Overconfidence
A striking lesson from Tetlock’s broader research is that expertise does not guarantee accuracy. In fact, experts can be especially vulnerable to overconfidence because they have compelling stories, strong reputations, and loyal audiences. The problem is not knowledge itself. The problem is the illu...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Break Big Questions Into Smaller Ones
Complex problems often feel unmanageable because we confront them in one intimidating piece. One of the most useful forecasting techniques in Good Judgment is to decompose a hard question into smaller, more tractable parts. Instead of asking, “Will this policy succeed?” or “Will this startup become ...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Calibration Improves Through Feedback Loops
Good judgment grows when predictions meet reality. One of the reasons people fail to improve is that they rarely receive clear, timely feedback on whether their beliefs were justified. Forecasting changes this by creating feedback loops. If you assign a 70 percent chance to an event and then repeate...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
Teams Can Think Better Than Individuals
Another powerful insight from the book is that forecasting often improves when people think together well. Collective intelligence is not automatic. Groups can become echo chambers, status hierarchies, or vehicles for groupthink. But when designed properly, teams can outperform individuals by poolin...
From Good Judgment: How to Improve Your Decision Making and Make Better Choices
About Dan Gardner
Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and author specializing in psychology and risk analysis.
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Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and author specializing in psychology and risk analysis.
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